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Amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting disruptions in energy and shipping routes, global steel and raw material markets showed moderate firmness in April 2026. Higher energy costs and supply chain uncertainties supported prices in certain segments, while demand outlook remained cautious. Market participants are increasingly focusing on strategic risk mitigation to hedge against price volatility in global supply chains. Furthermore, industrial resilience is being tested as manufacturers seek to balance rising input costs with shifting global steel demand patterns.
Global HRC Price Trends: China’s Export Strategy
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) FOB China Export prices averaged in the 480-495 USD/metric ton range, as Chinese mills navigated softer global demand amid regional uncertainties. This price stabilization reflects a calculated effort by major steel producers to maintain competitive market share despite fluctuations in domestic construction sectors. Additionally, the industry is closely monitoring potential trade barriers and anti-dumping regulations in key international export destinations.
Rebar Market Analysis: regional Pricing Dynamics
- Rebar FOB China:Averaged 487-500 USD/metric ton, remaining competitive for Asian and African buyers. Ongoing infrastructure development projects in emerging markets continue to provide a critical support level for Chinese rebar pricing. Industry analysts anticipate that regional demand will remain a primary driver for steel consumption throughout the second quarter.
- Rebar FOB Turkey: Held stronger at 590-600 USD/metric ton, benefiting from its position in a volatile scrap and energy market. Turkish steel mills are leveraging their strategic geographic proximity to supply high-quality rebar to Mediterranean and European construction markets. However, managing operational efficiency remains paramount as fluctuating energy surcharges impact the overall cost of production.
Steel Scrap Outlook: Supply Tightness in Turkey
Scrap HMS 1&2 80:20 CFR Turkey Prices averaged 400-413 USD/metric ton, lifted by tighter supply and elevated freight/insurance costs linked to Middle East disruptions. The scarcity of premium ferrous scrap grades has intensified competition among global buyers, leading to more complex procurement cycles. This supply-side pressure is expected to sustain elevated price benchmarks even if finished steel consumption experiences a temporary slowdown.
Iron Ore Benchmarks: Supply-Demand Balance
Iron Ore 62% Fe IODEX CFR China benchmark averaged 107-109 USD/dry metric ton, reflecting balanced supply despite broader commodity market volatility from the conflict. Current port inventory levels provide a necessary cushion against sudden supply shocks in the global iron ore trade. Looking ahead, market volatility will likely be influenced by updates in environmental policies and carbon emission standards within the heavy industry.
Market Forecast: Key Drivers Heading into May 2026
Outlook: Geopolitical risks, particularly the Middle East conflict, continue to influence energy prices, freight routes, and scrap availability. While this has provided some cost-side support, it has also increased uncertainty for global steel demand. Markets will closely watch developments in shipping corridors and energy costs heading into May. Strategic inventory management and supply chain transparency will become essential competitive advantages for stakeholders navigating these uncertain trade lanes. Consequently, the ability to forecast logistics disruptions will be a key factor in maintaining profit margins during the upcoming period.
Source: Based on publicly available market information and industry sources LME, Platts, Argus, SMM, SteelOrbis