Single Post
July 2026 Steel Market Overview
Global steel and raw material markets showed diverging regional trends throughout July, with European steel prices moving higher while Asian and Turkish markets faced downward pressure. The month also marked the implementation of new European Union measures aimed at protecting the regional steel industry from global overcapacity, adding a new layer of uncertainty to international trade flows. At the same time, declining scrap, iron ore, and metallurgical coal prices provided some relief on the raw material side, while demand conditions remained mixed across key markets.
Global HRC Price Trends: European Prices Move Higher
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices showed a clear regional divergence during July. HRC FOB China prices softened to around 483–485 USD/metric ton, reflecting continued competitive pressure in export markets and cautious demand. FOB Black Sea HRC prices also declined, averaging around 523–525 USD/metric ton as regional market conditions remained subdued. In contrast, Ex-Works Ruhr HRC prices increased to approximately 700–703 EUR/metric ton. The European market saw stronger price support following the implementation of the EU’s new steel import framework on 1 July, which introduced lower import quotas and higher duties on imports exceeding quota limits. The new measures are intended to shield European steel producers from global overcapacity and import pressure, contributing to a more protected regional market environment.
Rebar Market Analysis: Export Prices Under Pressure
Rebar prices generally moved lower across the key markets monitored during July. Rebar FOB China: Averaged within the 491–493 USD/metric ton range, declining from June as export competition remained strong and demand conditions stayed cautious. Rebar FOB Turkey: Traded around 572–575 USD/metric ton. The decline from the previous month was accompanied by lower scrap costs, while Turkish producers continued to navigate competitive export markets and uneven regional demand. The overall movement in rebar prices reflected a combination of softer raw material costs and limited demand momentum across international markets.
Steel Scrap Outlook: Raw Material Costs Continue to Ease
Ferrous scrap prices recorded broad-based declines during July, easing production costs for Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmakers. Premium HMS 80:20 CFR Turkey prices averaged within the 372–375 USD/metric ton range, down significantly from June. HMS FOB Rotterdam prices also declined to around 329–332 USD/metric ton, while other major scrap benchmarks followed the same downward trend. The decline in scrap prices provided some cost relief for steel producers, although the lower raw material costs also reflected softer demand and cautious purchasing activity across several markets. In Europe, meanwhile, increased demand for regional steel following tighter import measures was reported to be contributing to greater competition for available scrap supply.
Iron Ore Benchmarks: Prices Remain Under Pressure
Iron ore prices continued to weaken during July, with the Iron Ore CFR North China (62% Fe) benchmark averaging around 97–99 USD/dry metric ton. Higher-grade 65% Fe CFR North China material traded within the 113–115 USD/dry metric ton range, while 58% Fe CFR North China averaged around 83–85 USD/dry metric ton. The continued decline reflected cautious market sentiment and uncertainty surrounding Chinese steel demand. Softer steel demand and cautious purchasing activity continued to weigh on iron ore prices, while market participants remained focused on developments in Chinese steel production and raw material inventories.
Market Forecast: Key Drivers Heading into August 2026
Outlook: Global steel markets are expected to remain characterized by significant regional differences heading into August. European prices may continue to find support from tighter import controls and reduced competition from overseas suppliers, while Asian and other export markets are likely to remain sensitive to demand conditions and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, lower iron ore, scrap, and metallurgical coal prices may continue to provide some cost-side support for steel producers. Trade policies, regional supply-demand balances, and developments in global logistics will remain key factors shaping steel prices and procurement strategies in the coming month. Source: Based on publicly available international market indices, global shipping logistics data, and heavy industry trade reporting.